NASCAR: What If vs. Chase

NASCAR.com - Races - Standings
The word was that the EA Sports 500 would shake things up in the Chase. It did. However, it wasn't the "Big One" that caused it. Jimmie Johnson - ouch!

Rank	Chase Standings	Points	What If Standings	Points
1	Date Earnhardt Jr.	5543	Dale Earnhardt Jr.	4044
2	Kurt Busch	5530	Jeff Gordon	4034
3	Jeff Gordon	5482	Jimmie Johnson	3868
4	Mark Martin	5432	Kurt Busch	3819
5	Matt Kenseth	5393	Tony Stewart	3766
6	Tony Stewart	5391	Matt Kenseth	3700
7	Ryan Newman	5384	Elliott Sadler	3668
8	Elliott Sadler	5377	Mark Martin	3630
9	Jimmie Johnson	5371	*Jamie McMurray	3585
10	Jeremy Mayfield	5214	Ryan Newman	3565
11			* Kevin Harvick	3549
12			Jeremy Mayfield	3446
*Not in the Chase for the Nextel Cup

So, how did all this match up with my earlier predictions based on past average finishes?

Rank	Prediction	Actual
1	Dale Earnhardt Jr.	Dale Earnhardt Jr.
2	Jeff Gordon	Kurt Busch
3	Kurt Busch	Jeff Gordon
4	Jimmie Johnson	Mark Martin
5	Mark Martin	Matt Kenseth
6	Ryan Newman	Tony Stewart
7	Elliott Sadler	Ryan Newman
8	Tony Stewart	Elliott Sadler
9	Matt Kenseth	Jimmy Johnson
10	Jeremy Mayfield	Jeremy Mayfield

Thank goodness there are no more restrictor plates! DEI is just way above everyone else on plate tracks. HMS has closed the gap, but Gordon has no friends. You can't win without friends at Talladega.